Strib Varsity writers predict state semifinal football results
As the playoffs head into U.S. Bank Stadium for the next two weeks, two reporters try to predict which teams will advance to state title games.

By Jim Paulsen and Marcus Fuller
The Minnesota Star Tribune
Strib Varsity writers Jim Paulsen and Marcus Fuller, like the football teams they cover, aren’t letting up. They’re still trying to predict the results of high school football games. They’ve gone after six semifinals this week, and they’ll keep making guesses right through the Prep Bowl. Paulsen gained an advantage last week (Chanhassen over Cretin-Derham Hall made the difference) and is 39-19 to Fuller’s 38-20.
Thursday
Class 6A: Edina Hornets (7-4) vs. Minnetonka Skippers (9-2), 7 p.m.
Marcus says: Minnetonka might be the best football team still playing in Class 6A after Maple Grove was upset in the state quarterfinals. Also, the Skippers arguably have the best player who still has hopes of winning a state title. That’s senior running back Caleb Francois, who has rushed for 1,800 yards and 28 touchdowns this season. Francois had his worst rushing game of the season with 75 yards when Minnetonka lost to Edina last month, but he had to play quarterback that day. He threw two touchdown passes but also two interceptions. The Skippers are a different team now with Francois returning to running back and Caden Gutzmer healthy and back at QB. The pick: Minnetonka 27, Edina 24
Jim says: Edina is playing its best football of the season at the right time. The Hornets have already knocked off two foes ranked above them in the final state polls, beating Forest Lake in the second round and surviving an Eden Prairie rally to defeat the Eagles 23-21 in the quarterfinals. Edina running back Chase Bjorgaard has become a force to be feared in the backfield. Minnetonka has a little payback in mind, having suffered its first loss of the season to Edina, 27-20 on Oct. 10. Bjorgaard was the bell cow in that one, running for a season-high 187 yards on 42 carries. Minnetonka was without Gutzmer then. He’s back and playing well and tips the scales in Minnetonka’s favor. The pick: Minnetonka 33, Edina 27
Friday
Class 4A: Kasson-Mantorville KoMets (10-1) vs. Grand Rapids Thunderhawks (10-1), 11:30 a.m.
Marcus says: Kasson-Mantorville haters will bring up the fact that it only avenged its loss to Byron because of an injury. Yes, Byron star tailback Carson Heimer was sidelined for that section final won by KM. Jordan Heimer rushed for 231 yards in replacing Carson, but it didn’t prevent an upset. Last week, the KoMets kept their playoff run going with a 35-21 win against a talented but young Hill-Murray squad. Defense was the big key; Kasson-Mantorville had a 100-yard interception return for a touchdown and forced a fumble in the red zone. Grand Rapids is similar to Byron, with a formidable rushing attack (333 yards per game). The confidence built with back-to-back wins against top-10 opponents will carry over. The pick: Kasson-Mantorville 31, Grand Rapids 28
Jim says: Coming out of Section 1, the southeastern Minnesota section renowned for playing high-level football, the impulse is to lean into Kasson-Mantorville. After all, the KoMets were the giant-killers who took down 4A’s No. 1-ranked Byron two weeks ago. But Grand Rapids has flown largely under the radar, and the Thunderhawks deserve more love than they’ve received. They’re riding a nine-game winning streak that includes five shutouts. They’ve allowed six total points in three postseason games. And their style, hard-running offense and dogged defense led by terrific linebacker Oliver Spahn, is tailor-made for postseason success. The pick: Grand Rapids 28, Kasson-Mantorville 20
Class 5A: Spring Lake Park Panthers (11-0) vs. St. Thomas Academy Cadets (11-0), 2 p.m.
Marcus says: So much attention went to Class 6A football this season, especially the dominance of defending state champion Maple Grove, until it got bounced. The most complete undefeated team still standing could be St. Thomas Academy. The proof is the Cadets beat Chanhassen, which is still playing in the Class 5A semifinals this week. They also have shown the ability to outscore high-powered offensive opponents or win defensive battles. Much of the credit for offense went to the QB-RB tandem of Tristan Karl and Dominic Baez this year. But the biggest playmaker on the roster is arguably Todd Rogalski, who is capable of getting into the end zone on special teams, defense or offense. The pick: St. Thomas Academy 35, Spring Lake Park 17
Jim says: It’s been a terrific ride through the playoffs for Spring Lake Park, a different hero stepping up every week. Last week it was tight end Calen Truckenbrod’s diving end-zone catch in overtime in a 13-12 victory over Alexandra that kept the Panthers’ dream alive. I never want to dismiss a team that has karma on its side, but St. Thomas Academy is a team built to win. The Cadets have little in terms of weakness and plenty of the most important commodity at this time of year: playmakers. Running back Baez, quarterback Karl and Swiss Army knife Rogalski are the edge the Cadets need. The pick: St. Thomas Academy 26, Spring Lake Park 12
Class 6A: Moorhead Spuds (7-4) vs. Lakeville South Cougars (9-2), 7:30 p.m.
Marcus says: Completely opposite playing styles will clash in the matchup of Lakeville South and Moorhead. Run-heavy vs. pass-happy. The Cougars can run for 400 yards and the Spuds can throw for just as many. Jett Feeney to David Mack is as potent a QB-WR connection as there is in Minnesota high school football. Mack’s closing in on state single-season records with 107 catches for 1,439 yards and 24 touchdowns. The last time he was held under 90 receiving yards was in a 29-27 Moorhead loss to St. Michael-Albertville. But that was before Feeney returned from injury. I love Lakeville South’s story with the upset of No. 1 Maple Grove and coach Ben Burk sticking with the Cougars after leaving briefly in the offseason. But the Spuds are 6-0 with Feeney back this year. The pick: Moorhead 31, Lakeville South 28
Jim says: I’m convinced the loss of Feeney to injury during the middle of the season has made the Spuds a better, more well-rounded team. They took a few lumps but developed a much-needed physicality that helps at this time of year. And with Feeney back, the Spuds offense is humming. Lakeville South showed it can beat anyone with its beatdown of Maple Grove in the quarterfinals. Playing the mostly run-only Power-T offense featuring two stellar 1,000-yard rushers in Nic Swanson and Griffen Dean, Lakeville South can control the ball, control the clock and still put up impressive point totals. I expect a big-play bonanza. The defense that gets a stop or two wins. The pick: Lakeville South 48, Moorhead 44
Saturday
Class 3A: Minneapolis North Polars (11-0) vs. Annandale Cardinals (11-0), 4:30 p.m.
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Marcus says: What a season for Minneapolis North and quarterback Logan Lachermeier, who leads the state with 42 touchdown passes. Say what you want about the level of competition for North, but it takes talent to average nearly 50 points per game. That offensive ability came in handy last week against Pine Island. The Polars won 50-21, but they outscored their opponent 30-7 in the second half, which included Tyshone Jenkins’ three rushing touchdowns. Minneapolis North’s run game, complementing Lachermeier’s arm, will make the difference vs. Annandale. The pick: Minneapolis North 41, Annandale 27
Jim says: When the Minneapolis Conference abandoned district scheduling and went back to playing a full slate of conference games, it was touted as a re-establishment of traditional rivalries. The North players saw it differently, feeling they weren’t getting tested enough. They rallied to beat St. Croix Lutheran, scoring two touchdowns in the final seconds. Annandale will be North’s toughest test of the season. The Cardinals are big, fast, athletic and the best defensive team North has faced this season, having given up just 57 total points. North is too explosive to not score points, but Annandale will score more. The pick: Annandale 36, Minneapolis North 18
Class 5A: Chanhassen Storm (10-1) vs. Elk River Elks (9-2), 7 p.m.
Marcus says: Chanhassen is another team led by a prolific passer, senior Nathan Ramler, who has thrown 27 touchdown passes with just two interceptions this year. The Storm have the more talented roster in this matchup, with Iowa commit Owen Linder on the offensive line and West Virginia commit Kade Bush at tight end. But this won’t be a one-sided affair. Elk River is very hard to figure out at times. The Elks suffered a 52-16 blowout at Alexandria but beat a good Cretin-Derham Hall team 61-27 later in the season. Expect a high-scoring night. The pick: Chanhassen 38, Elk River 35
Jim says: Elk River tends to thrive in the climate-controlled environs of U.S. Bank Stadium, as evidenced by the Elks’ three state titles since 2016. Their vaunted Power-T can shred opposing game plans, but it benefits from opponents’ unfamiliarity with defending it. Chanhassen has not only shown itself to be highly capable defensively, but it’s also played (and lost to) Elk River three times in the past two years. The Storm won’t see anything they haven’t seen before, and Elk River has looked vulnerable at times this season. Chanhassen’s size and athleticism will be tough for the Elks to handle. The pick: Chanhassen 30, Elk River 24
About the Authors
Jim Paulsen
Reporter
Jim Paulsen is a high school sports reporter for the Minnesota Star Tribune.
See MoreMarcus Fuller
Reporter
Marcus Fuller is Strib Varsity's Insider reporter, providing high school beat coverage, features, analysis and recruiting updates. He's a former longtime Gophers and college sports writer for the Minnesota Star Tribune.
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