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Predicting the Prep Bowl: Strib Varsity’s picks for all seven championship games

Marcus Fuller and Jim Paulsen make guesses about four football state finals Friday and three more Saturday.

Edina coach Jason Potts speaks to his team after a victory this season. The Hornets will play Moorhead for the Class 6A championship Friday. (Jeff Wheeler/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
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By Marcus Fuller and Jim Paulsen

The Minnesota Star Tribune

Strib Varsity reporters Marcus Fuller and Jim Paulsen spent the season trying to predict winners of high school football games. They were often right, but they settled nothing. Each is 41-23 going into the seven Prep Bowl games. Here are their picks for the Prep Bowl, with their analysis:

Friday

Class 1A: Breckenridge (13-0) vs. Minneota (12-0), 10 a.m.

Marcus says: With a 45-game winning streak and the opportunity to win a fourth straight state title, Minneota is the best team in Friday’s Class 1A Prep Bowl. But the best player on the field is arguably Breckenridge’s David Erlandson, who has rushed for nearly 1,900 yards and 24 touchdowns this season. Erlandson had 123 yards and three TDs in the semifinals vs. Murray County Central, including a touchdown in the fourth quarter to break a 21-21 tie. Minneota’s Kellen Bradley, who ran for 146 yards in the semifinals, might argue about who is the best running back in this game. Settle that on the field, fellas. The pick: Minneota 27, Breckenridge 21

Jim says: Nice thoughts, Marcus, but let me remind you that football is the ultimate team sport. A great player can make a difference, but the other 10 on the field matter, too. And that’s why I can’t pick against Minneota. Why does Minneota win? The Vikings play disciplined football and execute as well as any team in the state. They know who they are, what they do well and what’s expected of them. This is Minneota’s time of year. Breckenridge has had a fantastic season, and David Erlandson is a baller, but I just can’t see Minneota’s streak ending here. The pick: Minneota 38, Breckenridge 16

Class 4A: Orono Spartans (9-3) vs. Kasson-Mantorville KoMets (11-1), 1 p.m.

Marcus says: No team had two catches in a game more spectacular last week than Orono had defeating Marshall 15-14 in their semifinal. Griffin Mauer’s 31-yard touchdown pass to open the game was first tipped into the air before Bennett Halverson twisted his body to make the grab as he was falling in the end zone. Justin Jefferson would approve. The game-winner, though, came from Lincoln Stinar on an 18-yard fade route, the longest two-point conversion you’ll ever see. Kasson-Mantorville also beat Grand Rapids 16-14 by stopping a two-point conversion pass last week. This feels like another game decided by less than a field goal. The pick: Orono 20, Kasson-Mantorville 18

Jim says: This is likely the Prep Bowl’s most evenly matched game. I can’t find a significant edge for either team. This is a toss-up, the kind of game that tilts on a crazy, unexpected play. Orono had a few of those go its way last week. This week, I think things even out for Kasson-Mantorville, which gave up two successful onside kicks in the closing minutes and was forced to hang on to outlast Grand Rapid in the semifinals. The pick: Kasson-Mantorville 24, Orono 16

Class 2A: Goodhue Wildcats (12-0) vs. Jackson County Central (12-0), 4 p.m.

Marcus says: Jackson County Central won last year’s state title without Roman Voss after he suffered an ankle injury. That contest was over when the Huskies outscored Staples-Motley 36-14 in the first half. Expect Voss to do everything he can to make sure Friday’s final vs. Goodhue is over by halftime while playing in his first Prep Bowl. Can he top his six-touchdown performance vs. Eden Valley-Watkins last week? A 28th rushing TD this year will give him another school record. That might happen on the first drive from just about midfield. The pick: Jackson County Central 45, Goodhue 14

Jim says: Let me say this about Goodhue: Coach Tony Poncelet’s team plays the type of football that wins games at this time of year. They’re not splashy but sound, they play roughneck defense and their relentless style wears down opponents. But Jackson County Central looks like too big a hill for the Wildcats to climb. The Huskies are a kennel full of dawgs — football players who salivate at the thought of taking down those across the line. Rarely do you find a Class 2A program with more than one Division I athlete (do-it-all Roman Voss, OL Weston Rowe). These are high school kids, and it’s important to remember that nothing is certain, but I just don’t see Jackson County Central losing. The pick: Jackson County Central 44, Goodhue 18

Class 6A: Moorhead Spuds (8-4) vs. Edina Hornets (8-4), 7 p.m.

Marcus says: The Spuds are 5-0 since quarterback Jett Feeney returned from injury last month. Feeney’s passing ability is enhanced by Minnesota’s best wide receiver, David Mack, who is near state records with 114 catches, 1,499 yards and 25 TDs. Zak Walker also came up big in the semifinal win vs. Lakeville South with 128 yards receiving. Both teams are spoiled with talent at receiver. Edina’s Mason West brought his team back from a three-touchdown deficit with huge plays last week from Jabari Strader and Sammy Stephenson, who combined for 309 yards and four touchdowns receiving. Can either defense slow down so many playmakers on the outside? The pick: Moorhead 35, Edina 31

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Jim says: This is the Edina team we thought we’d see all season. The Hornets struggled in the second half of the regular season, losing four of their last six games, but all were to legitimately strong foes. Hornets QB Mason West came back for one more shot at the football title that eluded him in 2023, and he has played like the top-flight quarterback he is. These two squared off in the regular-season finale, a 51-44 Moorhead victory. Lakeville South showed the blueprint for slowing down Moorhead in the semifinals, but the Spuds surprised everyone by winning with defense. Moorhead looks like 2025’s team of destiny right now, but don’t underestimate West’s ability to put the Hornets on his back. This one will be fun. The pick: Edina 39, Moorhead 38

Saturday

Nine-Player: Hillcrest Lutheran Comets (12-0) vs. Hills-Beaver Creek Patriots (12-0), 10 a.m.

Marcus says: There were five 8-0 teams in the final Nine-Player top-10 state ranking. Hills-Beaver Creek was ranked No. 1 and Hillcrest Lutheran Academy No. 5. You could easily just go with the top team in this matchup. Hillcrest Lutheran already pulled off an upset against Kittson County Central in the semifinals led by the QB-to-WR combination of Ethan Swedberg and Drew Fischer. But Hills-Beaver Creek running back Eduardo Wegener will be hard to stop coming off his 20-carry, 162-yard performance against Fertile-Beltrami. The pick: Hillcrest Lutheran 28, Hills-Beaver Creek 27

Jim says: This is the game Hills-Beaver Creek has been targeting since losing to Fertile-Beltrami in the championship game in 2024. The Patriots have the look of a team ready to take the next step. Start with the Metzger brothers, Jamin and Brodie, toss in All-Minnesota defensive back Micah Bush (headed to South Dakota State) and mix with underrated running back Wegener. That’s a potent football concoction. The Patriots have had only one game decided by fewer than 30 points all season. There is just too much for one team to stop. The pick: Hills-Beaver Creek 40, Hillcrest Lutheran 20

Class 3A: Annandale Cardinals (12-0) vs Waseca Bluejays (12-0), 1 p.m.

Marcus says: The theme to me in this Class 3A state championship is two-sport athletes Deron Russell and Colton Purcell taking over on both sides of the ball. Russell is headed to North Dakota State as a defensive back, but he led Waseca with nine catches for 67 yards in the semifinals last week, including a 25-yard touchdown. Oh yeah, Russell’s one of the top 10 basketball players in the state. Purcell, who averaged 19 points for the Annandale basketball team as a junior, was a game-changer in the football semifinal win vs. Minneapolis North. The 6-2 senior had six catches for 125 yards and two touchdowns, plus he made a key interception. You can bet Saturday’s game will be decided by one of these dynamic athletes. The pick: Waseca 24, Annandale 21

Jim says: Two seasons ago, Annandale coach Matt Walter had a team he believed was state championship-caliber. The Cardinals rolled undefeated through the regular season but lost to Stewartville in the championship game. The Cardinals are in the finals for the second time in three years, and this team might be better than the 2023 squad. Playmaking athletes galore dot the roster, led by seniors Gabe Westman, Isaiah Turner, Michael Kovall and Cam Ergen, juniors Colton Purcell and Braylon Fobbe and surging sophomore running back Rylan Horsch. With a defense that’s given up just 77 points all season, it’s the Cardinals’ year. The pick: Annandale 30, Waseca 16

Class 5A: Spring Lake Park (12-0) vs. Chanhassen (11-1), 4 p.m.

Marcus says: Spring Lake Park made sure there would be no rematch of the 2023 Prep Bowl when it upset St. Thomas Academy. Chanhassen made sure there would be no repeat champion by knocking off Elk River in the semifinals. The Panthers had the more decisive victory, by 16 points over the Cadets behind a 400-yard rushing attack. A repeat of that performance would make Spring Lake Park state champion for the first time since 1991. The more likely scenario seems that Chanhassen leans on the experience of being at U.S. Bank Stadium in big games for the third straight season. The Storm trio of Kade Bush, Owen Linder and Nathan Ramler are too talented to let anyone stand between them and the program’s second championship in three years. The pick: Chanhassen 31, Spring Lake Park 21

Jim says: It seems odd to pick against an undefeated team at this time of year, and Spring Lake Park has done a wonderful job meeting every challenge to get this far, but Chanhassen has had that championship twinkle in its eyes all season. The Storm’s only loss came in a lightning-shortened game at then-No. 1 St. Thomas Academy. That loss has been a driver since, leading to eight straight victories. Chanhassen’s past two victories, by four points over Cretin-Derham Hall and three over defending champion Elk River, show me a team that can win tight games. The pick: Chanhassen 27, Spring Lake Park 19

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About the Authors

Marcus Fuller

Reporter

Marcus Fuller is Strib Varsity's Insider reporter, providing high school beat coverage, features, analysis and recruiting updates. He's a former longtime Gophers and college sports writer for the Minnesota Star Tribune.

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Jim Paulsen

Reporter

Jim Paulsen is a high school sports reporter for the Minnesota Star Tribune.

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