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Strib Varsity Minnesota high school football predictions: the playoffs

Jim Paulsen and Marcus Fuller take a look at four games as the postseason begins in the six smallest classes.

Mankato West quarterback Charlie Bobholz will be a key figure Tuesday night at Waconia. (Ayrton Breckenridge/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
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By Jim Paulsen and Marcus Fuller

The Minnesota Star Tribune

Jim Paulsen and Marcus Fuller didn’t stop when the regulars season ended. The Strib Varsity writers will keep trying to predict winners of high school football games through the Prep Bowl.

Fuller added to his slight lead by correctly predicting Rosemount’s victory over Lakeville South last week. He’s 24-9 to Paulsen’s 22-11.

Here are their predictions and analysis for four Tuesday playoff games:

Class 5A: Mankato West (3-5) at Waconia (5-3), 7 p.m.

Marcus says: Watch out for Waconia’s Will Kirsch, one of the best all-around players in Class 5A football. The 6-foot senior wide receiver/defensive back has seven touchdowns receiving and five interceptions this year, including two returned for touchdowns. The Wildcats won 30-14 in the regular-season matchup with Mankato West on Sept. 19 with Karsen Herman throwing a season-high three TD passes, including one to Kirsch. This would be a much more intriguing matchup if big-armed junior QB Osborne Lorenz were back after playing only three games this season because of an ankle injury. The pick: Waconia 31, Mankato West 17

Tuesday’s schedule

Jim says: It’s been an atypical season for Mankato West, which has been accustomed to making a yearly push for a state tournament berth. Still, a team with the kind of pedigree the Scarlets have is dangerous. Junior QB Charlie Bobholz is a fine replacement for Lorenz. He has been improving by the game. Waconia would be wise to respect the talent Bobholz brings. Something tells me this one will be much closer than the regular-season meeting. I see a one-score decision, with the Wildcats pulling it out at home. The pick: Waconia 27, Mankato West 21

Class 4A: St. Peter (6-1) at Hutchinson (4-4), 7 p.m.

Marcus says: In games against Waseca, Marshall, Fairmont and Hutchinson last year, St. Peter lost by a combined score of 135-7. Yup. You read that correctly. A turnaround 2025 season started with a 7-6 loss vs. Class 4A power Waseca in the opener. The Saints ended the regular season by beating Fairmont 21-8 to enter the section playoffs with a 6-1 record. Hutchinson is 4-4 this season but lost only 15-14 against a solid Rocori squad. The Tigers are on a three-game winning streak, which included a 48-7 victory vs. Totino-Grace. The pick: Hutchinson 41, St. Peter 21

Jim says: I’ve said it before: Reputation counts in high school football. Hutchinson brings the rep. The Tigers stunned the state by losing four in row during the middle of the regular season (Hutch rarely loses four in an entire season) but closed the regular season with three straight victories, topping 40 points in each. Sounds good, but is it enough to make a significant dent in St. Peter’s rock-solid defense? Only Albert Lea managed to score more than once on the Saints, putting up 21 points in a 26-21 loss. Give St. Peter a strong start to build a little confidence, and the Saints are set. But they can’t let the ghosts of past Hutchinson dominance get in their heads or they’re in for a long night. The pick: St. Peter 22, Hutchinson 16

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Class 3A: Brooklyn Center (4-4) at Breck (5-3), 6 p.m.

Marcus says: Breck’s record was 5-1 this season after it escaped with an 18-12 victory against Brooklyn Center earlier this month. But the Mustangs were humbled in the last two games of the regular season by a combined score of 100-21 vs. St. Croix Lutheran and South St. Paul. Clearly those last two opponents were on a much different level than the rest of the teams on the Mustangs’ schedule. Brooklyn Center has a chance for an upset but needs another big game from Alpha Meaway, who had 236 yards rushing in the first meeting. The pick: Breck 24, Brooklyn Center 21

Jim says: The story of Brooklyn Center’s season began when many of its players from a successful youth football team decided to keep the band together in high school. They had high expectations for this season, but the weekly grind of high school football has proved tougher than anticipated. Still, the Centaurs are not lacking in talented skill players. Size, maybe, but that’s to be expected in Class 3A football. This is not just about Brooklyn Center, however. There’s talent on Breck, led by running back Alex Averbrook and wide receiver C.J. Roberts. Question: Can Breck shake off a couple of late-season disappointments and regain the confidence it had when it beat Brooklyn Center on Oct. 3? The pick: Brooklyn Center 30, Breck 20

Class 1A: Deer River (5-3) at Cherry (4-4), 6 p.m.

Marcus says: Cherry’s four-game winning streak ended with a 38-14 loss at Deer River on Oct. 10. The Tigers gave up 390 yards rushing, but the game was closer than the final score indicated, as Deer River led by only four points at halftime. This might be a chance for Cherry to get revenge. The pick: Cherry 24, Deer River 21

Jim says: Deer River had a party after halftime when these two played Oct. 10, scoring 24 straight points to break open a game that was close at halftime. Deer River plays Minnesota late-fall football: Run the ball, hit hard and limit mistakes. Cherry likes to air it out a little more, but I expect weather conditions on the Iron Range to determine that. I like Deer River. The pick: Deer River 30, Cherry 14

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About the Authors

Jim Paulsen

Reporter

Jim Paulsen is a high school sports reporter for the Minnesota Star Tribune.

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Marcus Fuller

Reporter

Marcus Fuller is Strib Varsity's Insider reporter, providing high school beat coverage, features, analysis and recruiting updates. He's a former longtime Gophers and college sports writer for the Minnesota Star Tribune.

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