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Predicting the 2026 boys basketball state tournament: Strib Varsity’s picks for all four brackets

Strib Varsity reporter Marcus Fuller forecasts every round of the tournament, from Class 4A through Class 1A.

Can Wayzata guards Christian Wiggins (2) and Nolen Anderson (3) lead the Trojans to another state title? (Aaron Lavinsky/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
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By Marcus Fuller

The Minnesota Star Tribune

Strib Varsity writer Marcus Fuller offers his predictions on which boys basketball teams will advance to the semifinals and championship games and which will become champions in Class 4A through Class 1A next week at Target Center in Minneapolis and Williams Arena at the University of Minnesota.

Here are the tournament brackets for 4A, 3A, 2A and 1A.

The Strib Varsity Boys Basketball Hub breaks down the schedule by day.

Class 4A

Marcus says …

In the quarterfinals: The Wayzata tandem of Nolen Anderson and Christian Wiggins vs. the Apple Valley tandem of Camare’ Young and Tre Parker is an intriguing matchup. No. 2 seed vs. No. 7 seed might be one-sided comparing teams, but Anderson and Wiggins need to score close to their average of 44 points to outplay Parker and Young, who average 42.9 points combined.

Top-seeded Tartan is heavily favored against No. 8 Blaine, which is making its first tournament appearance since 2016. The Titans’ drought goes further back to 2014, but they were in a much tougher section that required going through Cretin-Derham Hall.

No. 4 Lakeville South vs. No. 5 Chaska is a case of slight disrespect for the lower seed. The Hawks are on a 21-game winning streak, but the Cougars beat them 68-61 in the season opener. That happens again. Maple Grove will be tested more than any 4A higher seed in the No. 3 vs. No. 6 game. Defending 3A champion Alexandria falls just short of an upset in the opening round after moving up a class.

In the semifinals: Tartan and Lakeville South wouldn’t be much of a competitive football matchup, but the Titans have the talent advantage on the hardcourt. They will stretch their winning streak to 31 straight games. Wayzata has the tougher semifinal vs. Lake Conference rival Maple Grove, but it’s tough to beat a team three times in a season. The Trojans get revenge on the bigger stage after two close regular-season losses to the Crimson.

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The champion: Wayzata over Tartan. The Titans are attempting to be the first undefeated 4A champion since Hopkins in 2009. Problem is they don’t have an All-American like Royce White, who won Mr. Basketball that year. That honor might be in Tartan sophomore Kevin Wilson Jr.’s future, but the honor will go to either Anderson or Wiggins this season. A year ago, Anderson and Wiggins combined for 45 points and 15 rebounds in the title game vs. Cretin-Derham Hall. Don’t be surprised to see a similar stat line in the 2026 final.

Class 3A

Marcus says …

In the quarterfinals: The first-round matchup between No. 1 Totino-Grace vs. No. 8 Minneapolis South puts Eagles junior Malachi Hill against Tigers sophomore Jumair Wright. Hill’s experience takes over here, but he will also be motivated to beat the South program he played for as an eighth-grader. DeLaSalle has too much athleticism and length for Grand Rapids. The same for Richfield against Sartell. Northfield is in the state tourney for the first time since 1932, only to run into Big 9 Conference foe Mankato East. These teams split the regular-season meetings, but the Cougars have more experience after finishing as runners-up last year.

In the semifinals: Totino-Grace is on a mission to get back to the state title game after falling to eventual champion Alexandria in last year’s semifinals. Mankato East has more size with players listed at 6-feet-6, 6-feet-7 and 6-feet-9 in the rotation. But the Eagles’ deep backcourt and relentless defensive pressure will take over. DeLaSalle and Richfield split two regular-season games, but the second meeting was decided by 28 points. The Islanders make their first state championship game since 2023.

The champion: Totino-Grace over DeLaSalle. The Eagles couldn’t get past the state’s player of the year last season when current Clemson freshman Chase Thompson took Alexandria all the way. That kept TG coach Nick Carroll from a four-peat. That streak started with Carroll’s second title in the 2023 final vs. DeLaSalle. Drake recruit Dothan Ijadimbola rises to the occasion to win MVP honors.

Class 2A

Marcus says …

In the quarterfinals: The best trio in Class 2A is probably Goodhue’s Luke Roschen, Owen Roschen and Alex Loos, who enter the state tournament averaging a combined 59 points per game this season. Their experience with a third consecutive state trip will help them move on. Pencil in Pequot Lakes advancing as well to extend a 21-game winning streak. The two most competitive opening games will be Jackson County Central beating defending champion Albany and Waseca upsetting Minnehaha Academy behind football stars Roman Voss and Deron Russell, respectively.

In the semifinals: Goodhue gets revenge from losing against JCC in the Prep Bowl. Voss will treat Gophers fans to a big game, but the Wildcats have too much firepower in the backcourt. Russell had 38 and 32 points in the semifinals and final to lead Waseca to a runner-up finish last season. The North Dakota State football recruit might go for 40 points this time for another shot at the 2A title.

The champion: Goodhue over Waseca. The Roschen brothers celebrate the program’s first state title after suffering heartbreak in football. The Wildcats establish another go-to guy with Waseca trying to shut down leading scorer Luke Roschen. The talented sophomore Loos goes for 30 to make the all-tournament team.

Class 1A

Marcus says …

In the quarterfinals: Henning (30-0) hasn’t lost yet this season, and a defeat won’t occur in the state tournament opener. Liberty Classical, Hills-Beaver Creek and Southland are making their first ever tournament appearances. That will make a difference with too many jitters to overcome for one of them. The latter two teams are playing each other. But HBC’s championship experience in football might come in handy. Speaking of experience, Cherry has two straight Class 1A final appearances, including being crowned 2024 champion. Noah and Isaiah Asuma were on those Tigers teams. Janesville-Waldorf-Pemberton falls as the No. 2 seed.

In the semifinals: Henning is trying to be the first 1A team to win the title and go undefeated since Belgrade-Brooten-Elrosa was 33-0 in 2012. Red Lake County played in the semifinals last season, but Cherry pulls off a second consecutive upset.

The champion: Henning over Cherry. I know it’s boring to pick three No. 1 seeds to win the four classes. The Hornets will win their second state title under coach Randy Misegades, who will enjoy celebrating this trophy with his son and leading scorer, Kale. The previous championship came in 2019.

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About the Author

Marcus Fuller

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Marcus Fuller is Strib Varsity's Insider reporter, providing high school beat coverage, features, analysis and recruiting updates. He's a former longtime Gophers and college sports writer for the Minnesota Star Tribune.

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