Minnesota girls basketball state tournament predictions and previews
Strib Varsity’s Cassidy Hettesheimer sizes up each class and picks a winner.

The Minnesota Star Tribune
March is known for its basketball madness, and that’s no different in Minnesota.
Beginning Wednesday, March 11, and running through Saturday, March 14, 32 girls basketball teams will take to the court at the Gophers’ Williams Arena and Maturi Pavilion, looking to raise one of four state tournament trophies.
From defending champs to storied programs to state tournament debutants, see how each of the four classifications’ tournaments could shake out.
Class 4A
Hopkins might be the top seed and defending last year’s state-record ninth state title, but coach Tara Starks doesn’t want the Royals to take that for granted.
“Nothing is automatic,” Starks said after the Royals’ Section 6 victory over Wayzata. “There’s been a narrative that the team that comes out of [Section 6] is the favorite. I don’t want my kids to think like that. I want them to stay locked in and focus on one game at a time.”
There will be plenty of contenders in the running to deny a Royals title repeat. No. 2 Rosemount, No. 4 Maple Grove and No. 8 Blaine have all finished runner-up but never won it all, while Rochester Mayo has two state trophies in its cabinet, but none from this century.
East Ridge, Chanhassen and new-to-4A Monticello are all making their big-school state tournament debuts.
Quarterfinals:
Wednesday at Williams Arena
10 a.m.: [8] Blaine (21-8) vs. [1] Hopkins (25-2)
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4 p.m.: [6] Monticello (25-4) vs. [3] Rochester Mayo (28-1)
Predictions:
A well-balanced Blaine squad, returning to state for the first time since 2009, has a tough task to stop Hopkins’ high-scoring trio of juniors Jaliyah Diggs, Ava Cupito and Erma Walker. The No. 1 seed advances.
The matchup between No. 2 Rosemount and No. 7 Chanhassen could be the most fun of the bunch. Chanhassen is a tough No. 7 seed, with guard Kate Arnold (South Dakota), junior guard Lyla Hentges (St. Thomas) and freshman Lucy Hilgert all averaging more than 15 points per game. But we’ll say it’s Rosemount’s depth that gives the Irish the edge in a close one.
Maple Grove has the experience to fend off the Raptors, and Mayo has the depth to hold off a strong Monticello team. But this tournament field has enough quality teams that picking all chalk feels like it’s just inviting an upset or two — a sudden Storm from Chanhassen, or some Magic from the Magic.
Semifinals:
Thursday at Williams Arena
6 p.m.: winner of No. 1/8 vs. winner of No. 4/5
8 p.m.: winner of No. 2/7 vs. winner of No. 3/6
Predictions:
Hopkins and Maple Grove both winning their quarterfinals would mean a semifinal rematch of last year’s title game. This Maple Grove team looks different, having graduated four of those starters, but is nonetheless talented, including Montana-bound guard Kate Holmquist.
Hopkins has beaten the Crimson twice this year in Lake Conference play. In the more lopsided game, Maple Grove was missing Holmquist, so expect a semifinal to be closer, but Hopkins picks up another victory over a familiar opponent.
On the other side of the bracket, Rosemount heats up from deep to take care of business against Mayo.
Championship:
8 p.m. Saturday at Williams Arena
Hopkins leans on its strong defense to quiet Rosemount’s sharpshooters and pulls away in the second half. That would be a third runner-up finish for the Irish, and a repeat for the Royals while upping their state-record title total to 10.
. . .
Class 3A
The separation between the top seeds of this tournament is excitingly narrow. That’s not a knock to No. 1 Stewartville, which has the proven chops to make a run to its first title in its fourth consecutive trip to state.
Rather, it’s a delight for fans, who should be treated to some great games.
In last year’s Class 3A bracket, No. 7-seeded Cretin-Derham Hall was one of only two teams seeded sixth or below to pull off a quarterfinal upset, beating No. 2 Monticello. (No. 7 MACCRAY was the other, in 1A.)
The three-time defending state champ Benilde-St. Margaret’s is back, having taken down the top-ranked team in Class 3A, Orono, in the Section 6 final.
Quarterfinals:
Wednesday at Maturi Pavilion
10 a.m.: [8] Willmar (18-11) vs. [1] Stewartville (27-1)
Noon: [5] Hill-Murray (26-3) vs. [4] Cretin-Derham Hall (21-8)
2 p.m.: [7] Rock Ridge (20-9) vs. [2] Benilde-St. Margaret’s (23-6)
4 p.m.: [6] Totino-Grace (17-12) vs. [3] Marshall (25-4)
Predictions:
Stewartville, already tested with wins over Marshall and Benilde-St. Margaret’s this season, navigates Willmar without too much of a scare. Hill-Murray gets an edge over Cretin-Derham Hall, revenge for an early-season loss to the Raiders.
Rock Ridge has a roster that’s been here before, in its third consecutive trip to state with senior sisters Lexi and Maija Lamppa (Minnesota Crookston) leading the charge. But Benilde-St. Margaret’s knows what it takes to win at Williams Arena.
Totino-Grace isn’t too far removed from its 2022 state title, while Marshall, four-time runner-up since its 2001 and ’02 titles, is hungry for another, and beats the Eagles.
Semifinals:
Thursday at Williams Arena
Noon: winner of No. 1/8 vs. winner of No. 4/5
2 p.m.: winner of No. 2/7 vs. winner of No. 3/6
Like in Class 4A, we could get a rematch of last year’s championship in the semifinals, this time between Benilde-St. Margaret’s and Marshall. Marshall gets revenge for last year’s title-game loss. Stewartville puts together a strong defensive showing to get past Hill-Murray.
Championship:
2 p.m. Saturday at Williams Arena
Could we get an all-Tigers finale to the Class 3A tournament? Stewartville handed Marshall its only in-state loss since mid-December, 80-70 on Jan. 31, outscoring Marshall by 18 in the second half.
In a rematch, Marshall keeps cooking until the final buzzer and wins its third state title behind strong performances from senior Reese Drake (Southwest Minnesota State volleyball) and Tayleigha Bigler (Southwest Minnesota State).
. . .
Class 2A
This 2A field pits some blue bloods against one another, with 89 combined state tournament appearances in the field of eight teams. That’s led by 21 trips to state by Rochester Lourdes, 21 by New London-Spicer, 18 by Minnehaha Academy and 10 by Sauk Centre.
And then there’s top-seeded Providence Academy, defending a state-record four consecutive 2A titles, led by the state’s all-time leading scorer, Kentucky commit and senior point guard Maddyn Greenway.
Quarterfinals:
Wednesday at Williams Arena
6 p.m.: [8] Central Public Schools (22-8) vs. [1] Providence Academy (25-4)
Wednesday at Maturi Pavilion
6 p.m.: [7] Sauk Centre (23-6) vs. [2] Duluth Marshall (22-7)
8 p.m.: [6] Minnehaha Academy (18-11) vs. [3] New London-Spicer (29-1)
The defending champ makes it through the quarterfinals, as does Lourdes, with eighth-grade guard Amelia Truty and senior forward Lauren Hust (St. Cloud State) making an impressive pair.
Duluth Marshall, back at state for the first time since its 2021 team (with current UCLA standout Gianna Kneepkens) made the drive down, advances past 2018 champ Sauk Centre. New London-Spicer vs. battle-tested Minnehaha Academy might be the closest quarterfinal, but the state’s all-time winningest coach, Mike Dreier, helps the Wildcats avoid an upset by a young Redhawks team.
Semifinals:
Friday at Williams Arena
Noon: winner of No. 1/8 vs. winner of No. 4/5
2 p.m.: winner of No. 1/8 vs. winner of No. 4/5
Providence Academy can outduel most Class 4A schools and does so against Rochester Lourdes. Duluth Marshall reaches its first state title game by knocking off New London-Spicer.
Championship:
6 p.m. Saturday at Williams Arena
No other girls basketball team in Minnesota has won four consecutive state titles. Providence Academy extends its record by making it five in a battle between Greenway and the Hilltoppers’ sophomore point guard Chloe Johnson, who surpassed 3,000 career points this season and could end her career on many of the same all-time leaderboards as the Kentucky commit.
. . .
Class 1A
The smallest size classification is the only one in which last year’s champ (West Central Area) isn’t back to defend its state title. In fact, only two of the eight teams in last year’s field return this season: Sleepy Eye St. Mary’s and Mayer Lutheran — plus, New Richland-Hartland-Ellendale-Geneva, which was competing in Class 2A.
Quarterfinals:
Thursday at Maturi Pavilion
11 a.m.: [8] Braham (24-6) vs. [1] Mountain Iron-Buhl (28-1)
1 p.m.: [5] New Richland-Hartland-Ellendale-Geneva (27-3) vs. [4] Hillcrest Lutheran Academy (28-2)
3 p.m.: [7] Mayer Lutheran (25-5) vs. [2] Sleepy Eye St. Mary’s (29-1)
5 p.m.: [6] Central Minnesota Christian (26-3) vs. [3] Northome/Kelliher (29-1)
Mountain Iron-Buhl, the 2023 champ, had an iron grip on the No. 1 in 1A down the season’s back stretch, only losing to Class 3A’s Rock Ridge. The Rangers end Braham’s first trip back to state since its runner-up finish in 2013.
NRHEG, led by senior sisters Camryn and Quinn VanMaldeghem, has been tournament-tested enough to take its quarterfinal over state debutant Hillcrest Lutheran.
Mayer Lutheran was upset by the No. 7 seed last year and will be looking to pull off the same feat and avenge a three-point December loss to Sleepy Eye-St. Mary’s behind their volleyball state champions, twins Clara and Izzy Keaveny (St. Cloud State volleyball).
Northome/Kelliher, helped to state for the first time by Minnesota’s all-time steals leader Kate Thayer, picks the pocket of Central Minnesota Christian often to advance to the semis.
Semifinals:
Friday at Williams Arena
Noon: winner of No. 1/8 vs. winner of No. 4/5
2 p.m.: winner of No. 2/7 vs. winner of No. 3/6
Even after some first-round upsets, the top seeds represent northern Minnesota well as Mountain-Iron Buhl and Northome/Kelliher advance to the championships.
Championship:
Noon Saturday at Williams Arena
Mountain Iron-Buhl won these teams’ regular-season meeting 100-90, but Northome/Kelliher’s three leading scorers — Thayer, Kylee Binkley and Allison Lundin, all seniors — help cash in on their program’s first trip to state with a first title for the Mustangs.
About the Author
Cassidy Hettesheimer
Sports reporter
Cassidy Hettesheimer is a high school sports reporter for Strib Varsity.
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