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Minnesota high school girls basketball section tournaments preview and predictions

Strib Varsity predicts which teams will book their tickets to Williams Arena for the four girls basketball state tournaments.

Orono, standout sisters Mya (3) and Ally Moore (4), is looking to win its section and make state. (Cassidy Hettesheimer/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
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By Cassidy Hettesheimer

The Minnesota Star Tribune

Who said some good old-fashioned basketball madness needs to wait until March?

As girls basketball section tournaments play out over the next two weeks, teams across Minnesota will jostle for 32 state-tournament spots in four classes.

Which teams will make it through sections and onto the Williams Arena court starting March 11? We make our predictions here while giving you 10 intriguing section tournaments to keep an eye on:

Class 4A: Sections to watch

Section 1

Lakeville North has had a lock on this section title for most of the past decade, reaching state every year but 2021. The No. 3-seeded Panthers (13-13) have a solid squad that has faced a tough schedule, but top-seeded Rochester Mayo (25-1) and No. 2 Lakeville South (17-9) have both beaten North this year and are favored to do so again in the postseason.

Rochester Mayo sophomore Maggie Dyer is averaging 18.6 points per game for the top-seeded Spartans. (Cassidy Hettesheimer/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Mayo, which lost 63-62 to North in the section final last year, hasn’t reached state since 2015. The Spartans haven’t lost since late November and are led in scoring by the dynamic sophomore duo of guard Amelia Mills and forward Maggie Dyer.

Meanwhile, Lakeville South hasn’t made state since Lakeville split into two schools in 2005. Steered by senior forward Amaya Pahl and sophomore guard Piper Ohnstad, the Cougars could be on a semifinal collision course against rival North for the chance to see red-hot Mayo in the title game.

Section 2

This section is one of the deepest in the state.

Top-seeded Minnetonka (20-5), the 2024 Class 4A champ, ended the regular season with a big 69-68 victory over one of the state’s best, Wayzata, thanks to 28 points and a pair of clutch free throws from the Skippers’ skipper, senior point guard Lanelle Wright.

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But No. 2 Chanhassen (18-7) and No. 3 Waconia (18-8) have been top-25 teams all year, and No. 4 Prior Lake (12-14) has shown it can pull off an upset over a top team on any given night. No. 5 Shakopee (11-15) is 6-1 in its last seven games, including wins over Rosemount and Eastview, and even No. 6 Eden Prairie and No. 7 Chaska have kept tough games close.

Senior point guard Lanelle Wright has Minnetonka playing well heading into sections. (Cassidy Hettesheimer)

Section 6

In 2025, both Hopkins and Wayzata looked like Class 4A title contenders when the Royals won a seventh-consecutive section title game over the Trojans. Hopkins went on to raise its record-breaking ninth big-school title.

This year, the stakes are just as high. Hopkins is ranked No. 1 in the state, while Wayzata is No. 2. The teams split their two regular-season meetings, first 61-52 in Wayzata’s favor, then 77-74 in Hopkins’.

Will Hopkins continue its quest for a state title repeat? Or is it the year that a well-balanced Wayzata team ends Hopkins’ 11-year Section 6 reign?

Watch this section: Strib Varsity will stream every game of this Section 6 tournament exclusively on stribvarsity.com. Read more about these livestreams here.

Maren Day and Wayzata and Inarah Nesbitt and Hopkins likely will meet again. (Cassidy Hettesheimer/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Section 8

In addition to the defending section champion, No. 3 seed Brainerd (20-6), teams like top-seeded Monticello, No. 2 Elk River (20-6) and No. 5 Alexandria (19-7) have all looked dangerous this year, and No. 4 St. Michael-Albertville (10-16) always enters sections tested by a tough Lake Conference schedule.

After reaching Class 3A state last year, there’s a good chance Monticello (22-4) could return to the big dance in its first year moved up to Class 4A — never mind that the former 3A team reps a school with one of Class 4A’s smallest enrollments.

Class 4A: Predictions for section winners

1-Lakeville South, 2-Minnetonka, 3-Rosemount, 4-East Ridge, 5-Maple Grove, 6-Hopkins, 7-Forest Lake, 8-Monticello.

. . .

Class 3A: Sections to watch

Section 1

There will be two top-10 teams in Class 3A that don’t make it out of this section. Top-seeded Stewartville (25-1) has won 24 straight games, including matchups over No. 2 seed Northfield (21-5) and No. 3 Byron (19-7). In fact, the Tigers have knocked off many of the 3A heavy hitters, like Benilde-St. Margaret’s and Marshall.

A Byron or Northfield upset would deny Stewartville its fourth consecutive trip to state, with its best finish as runner-up in 2023.

Stewartville is the top seed in its section. (Cassidy Hettesheimer)

Section 6

Like its Class 4A counterpart, Class 3A’s Section 6 tournament will eliminate at least one state title contender. The top team in Class 3A, Orono, has multiple worthy challengers.

Benilde-St. Margaret’s (20-6) is the three-time defending Class 3A state champ. Orono (22-3) hasn’t reached state since it won it all in 2017. But two regular-season wins over the Red Knights have given the Spartans the No. 1 seed. The pair have met in the last two section title games.

No. 3 seed Delano (20-6) is another squad among Class 3A’s best, and played No. 2 Benilde-St. Margaret’s to a four-point loss this season.

Class 3A: Predictions

1-Stewartville, 2-Marshall, 3-Cretin-Derham Hall, 4-Hill-Murray, 5-Becker, 6-Orono, 7-Rock Ridge, 8-Little Falls.

. . .

Class 2A: Sections to watch

Section 2

In Section 2, good things come in twos. Duos, that is.

The coaches’ polls have top-seeded Red Wing (23-4) at No. 3 in Class 2A, then second-seeded Rochester Lourdes (21-6) at No. 6. Sisters Isabella (senior forward) and Alexa Guetzlaff (sophomore guard), are among the the Wingers’ leading scorers, while eighth-grade guard Amelia Truty and senior forward Lauren Hust both put up around 19 points per game for the Eagles.

No. 3 Goodhue (19-8), the three-time Class 1A champ, will look to keep up the tradition of being a state tournament regular, this time in its first season up in Class 2A. They’ve also got a pair of sisters, junior twins Lola and Aubrey Christianson, leading the charge, too.

Goodhue and guard Aubrey Christianson will be tough to tangle with this month and next. (Renée Jones Schneider/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Section 7

The Class 2A team that comes out of the Northland will have to beat some of the best players in the state.

Top-seeded Crosby-Ironton (21-5), last year’s state runner-up and three-time defending section champ, is the second-ranked team in its class, led by Gopher commit Tori Oehrlein, who cracked 5,000 career points this year.

But No. 2 Duluth Marshall (19-7), also a top-5 Class 2A squad, has a standout point guard of their own, sophomore Chloe Johnson. No. 3 Proctor (18-8) played both the top seeds close this season. And keep an eye on upset bids from No. 4 Pequot Lakes (17-9), and No. 5 Mesabi East (21-5), whose senior post Marta Forsline is a double-double machine.

One of the best players in the Upper Midwest is in Class 2A: Crosby-Ironton senior guard Tori Oehrlein. (Cassidy Hettesheimer/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Class 2A: Predictions

1-Rochester Lourdes, 2-Janesville-Waldorf-Pemberton, 3-New London-Spicer, 4-Minnehaha Academy, 5-Providence Academy, 6-Milaca, 7-Crosby-Ironton, 8-Perham.

. . .

Class 1A: Sections to watch

Section 3

This section pits tournament experience against two top Class 1A teams looking to book long-evasive tickets to state.

MACCRAY (19-7), the No. 2 seed on the north side of the bracket, finished as state runner-up last year while making its first trip to Williams Arena since 2006.

But the top seeds on both the north and south sides of the bracket will be looking to take a page out of MACCRAY’s book. No. 1N Central Minnesota Christian (23-3), with junior guard Sienna Duininck‘s 23.5 points per game, hasn’t won a section title since 2001. No. 1S Hills-Beaver Creek (24-3) is seeking its first section title.

MACCRAY's Brielle Janssen wants a return to Williams Arena. (Anthony Souffle/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Section 6

The top two teams in this section, top-seeded Hillcrest Lutheran Academy (24-2) and Breckenridge (19-7), are both top-10 teams in the 1A coaches poll battling for their program’s first trips to state.

Breckenridge has played a regular-season schedule through a tough Heart O’Lakes Conference that includes several top 2A teams, while Hillcrest Lutheran comes in as Little Eight Conference winners over the section’s No. 3 seed, Underwood.

Class 1A: Predictions

1-New Richland-Hartland-Ellendale-Geneva, 2-Sleepy Eye-St. Mary’s, 3-MACCRAY, 4-Mayer Lutheran, 5-Braham, 6-Breckenridge, 7-Mountain Iron-Buhl, 8-Kelliher/Northome.

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About the Author

Cassidy Hettesheimer

Sports reporter

Cassidy Hettesheimer is a high school sports reporter for Strib Varsity.

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